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#301
daka

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Прикольная компашка, когда она за 100 надо сливать, а когда чуть выше 50-60 покупать, колбасится не по детский.
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#302
Pooh

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И тут Пух на белом коне вытаскивает тему со второй страницы!

Поехали. Статья которая в принципе даёт краткое содержание классической книги "Intelligent Investor" Бенжамина Грэхема, которую Баффетт назвал "the most important investing book ever written", или что-то в этом духе.

Заодно и новый сайт: http://www.permanent-value.com/

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The commandments of value investing

http://www.permanent...ueInvesting.pdf


6. Don?t stress out

Realize that you are unlikely to hit the precise ?intrinsic value? of a stock or a stock market right on the mark. A margin of safety provides peace of mind. ?Use an old Graham and Dodd guideline that you can?t be that precise about a simple value,? suggested Professor Roger Murray. "Give yourself a band of 20 percent above or below, and say, ?that is the range of fair value.?

7. Don?t sweat the math

Ben, who loved mathematics, said so himself: ?In 44 years of Wall Street experience and study, I have never seen dependable calculations made about common stock values, or related investment policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra. Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give speculation the deceptive guise of investment.?

Сообщение отредактировал Pooh: 29.11.2005, 03:47:36

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#303
Pooh

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Естественно без полного оффтопа Пух не может, раз уж заговорили о "commandments", всем читать не менее важные commandments от не менее важного дяди! (Это чтобы Нарим проснулся). :laugh:

Ten Crack Commandments

http://www.lyricsdom...mmandments.html


Number three: never trust no-bo-dy
Your moms'll set that ass up, properly gassed up
Hoodie to mask up, shit, for that fast buck
she be layin in the bushes to light that ass up
Number four: know you heard this before
Never get high, on your own supply


:-)
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#304
Pooh

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Едем дальше, статья про дядю Клармана, который написал популярную книжку "Margin of Safety". Вобщем эта книжка больше не печатается, дошло до того что б/ушные копии продаются на Амазоне от 400 до 1200 баксов за штуку: http://www.amazon.co...6063042-2424131

----------------

Value investing's future?

http://www.marketwat...D&siteid=google

He has put his money where his mouth is, with 45% of his portfolio in cash and T-Bills. Another 20% or so is in stock, with much of the rest in distressed debt and direct investments in real estate.
....
Klarman says he doubled his U.S. exposure over the past three to six weeks, but quickly adds that Korea is the most interesting opportunity. "Distressed debt will get more interesting because of record issues of low quality debt" that is still over-priced, he says, "but a lot of people are waiting for that to happen."


Примечания Пуха: Баффетт свой личный портфель тоже несколькими корейскими компаниями загрузил.

Unfortunately, he says, adversity can cause confusion. He used the example of buying a stock at $10 with a target to sell at $19. "If you sold it at 19 and the next day the company had bad earnings and the stock went down to $11, you might think of buying it at $11. But if it hit the price target and you didn't sell and now it's at $11, you hate the situation. You wonder how management could've misled you. You didn't make money the first time, you feel they misled you so you won't take another bite of the apple," even though that might be the wisest thing to do.


Примечания Пуха: :-)

As for the future? "Candidly," Klarman says, "I think the world is setting itself up for an avalanche of opportunity. Everyone is highly invested" but "artificially low interest rates" combined with record-high junk bond offerings "put off the day of financial reckoning."

He believes incoming Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke "may be the catalyst for reality to take hold," especially as it pertains to junk bonds. There are currently record amounts of junk that are rated "C" and below. "They almost always default at a higher rate," he says. "There's no reason to think it will be different this time. I believe artificially low interest rates, as the Fed fought to stave off an economic downturn, caused people to take on high mortgages... and credit card debt." As that continues, "people will make bad credit decisions."

Klarman notes that banks have told him they've lost business to hedge funds because they're being under-priced by banks. "That's bad," he says. He also said bankers are "making bad loans, but the mandate from high up is to put assets on their books. And they know their own portfolios will be workouts, but they do it anyway because of pressure from Wall Street."

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#305
Pooh

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http://www.magicformulainvesting.com

Новая книжка вышла - "The Little Book that Beats the Market" (в статье выше упоминалась), это её сайт кажется. Если зарегистрируйтесь, выдаст скринер в котором я нашел довольно много компаний которые я сам летом нашел через свой скринер на рейтерс.ком

круто.

критериев скрина на сайте нет, наверное в книге, но я догадываюсь что они из себя представляют. :-)
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#306
Pooh

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Следущая статья приводится в полном тексте, так как бесплатно её уже не прочитаешь: http://iht.nytimes.c...eb.1030mjoe.php

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A few weeks ago, Columbia Business School held its 15th annual Graham and Dodd breakfast. The guest speaker was Jean-Marie Eveillard, a legendary (and now retired) mutual fund manager, who used to regularly beat the market by adhering to the ''value investing'' principles first articulated in 1934 by the great investor Benjamin Graham and his then-research assistant David Dodd in their classic book, ''Security Analysis.'' The host was Bruce Greenwald, the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management, whose value investing course is one of the school's most popular offerings. Heilbrunn, a Graham disciple who died in 2001, donated the money for Greenwald's chair in 1989 and also gave the university $5 million to establish a Graham and Dodd research center. Among the 300-plus value investors in the audience were two well-known fund managers who are also alumni of the Columbia business school: Mario Gabelli, owner of his own investment firm and a strong backer of the Columbia program, and Paul Sonkin of the Hummingbird Value Fund and an adjunct professor at the school, where he teaches - what else? - value investing.

And present in spirit, if not in the flesh, was another Graham devotee, the greatest value investor of them all: Warren Buffett, Class of 1951.

I hadn't quite appreciated, prior to going to the breakfast, the extent to which Columbia Business School is an outlier in the world of academic finance. (Full disclosure: for the last year and a half, I have taught a class at Columbia Journalism School.) Most business schools emphasize modern portfolio theory, the central tenet of which is that the market is so efficient it cannot be beaten with any regularity. Portfolio theory stresses, sensibly enough, diversification as the best way to spread market risk, but it also generally holds that because the market is efficient, those who beat it are lucky rather than skilled. As Buffett put it to me recently, ''You couldn't advance in a finance department in this country unless you taught that the world was flat.'' Although Columbia has its share of portfolio theorists, the value investing program that Greenwald runs - and that people like Gabelli and Heilbrunn helped pay for - preaches something else: that the world is round. Or, more precisely, that the market can be beaten. Not easily, mind you, and not mindlessly. A value stock is, at bottom, a cheap stock, one that has been beaten down by the market for some reason. And a value investor is someone who has four qualities: the facility to ferret out cheap stock that don't deserve to be cheap; the acumen to understand why certain such companies have what Buffett calls ''a sustained competitive advantage'' that will be borne out over time; the patience to wait for the market to come around to their view of things, and the discipline to stick to the value parameters through thick and thin.

''For a value investor, the only relevant questions are, 'Is it a good business? And will it be a better business in five years?''' said Jason Zweig, a columnist for Money magazine who, a few years ago, published an annotated version of Graham's other classic work, ''The Intelligent Investor.''

If this be heresy, the world could use a little more of it.
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#307
Pooh

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continued...

''Efficient market theory is basically dead,'' Greenwald exclaimed the other day with a chuckle. We were sitting in a Starbucks a few blocks from Columbia, and he was telling me the story of how he abandoned portfolio theory for value investing.

Myself, I've always found value investing appealing because it seems to reward virtue. If you put in the effort, focus more on the business than the stock, and have patience, you have a decent chance of making money. It seems right, somehow, that that's how the world should work.

Greenwald, an economist and an expert on business strategy, is clearly a gifted teacher, but he is also a man who likes to make grand, provocative statements that are likely to tick off the academic establishment - such as, for instance, efficient market theory is dead. I suspect that Greenwald finds value investing appealing at least in part because it puts him at such odds with his academic brethren.

In fact, Columbia's value investing roots go back to Graham himself, who not only went to the school as an undergraduate, but taught there until the mid-1950s. (Buffett took his course and worked for his small investment firm, Graham Newman, from 1954 to 1956.) By the time Greenwald arrived at Columbia from Harvard in the early 1990s, though, the business school had largely abandoned the field.

Not long after he got there, Greenwald attended a series of lectures - as a ''courtesy,'' he says - by a retired professor named Roger Murray. Murray had taught value investing for 20 years after Graham, and one of his prize student had been Gabelli, who was underwriting the lectures - and videotaping them, a little like an anthropologist trying to capture a dying language while there was still someone around who spoke it.

To his surprise, Greenwald came away impressed. ''I thought, 'This is not stupid,''' he recalled. ''There is a discipline and a process here.'' In his own financial life, Greenwald was the rankest of speculators, to sometimes spectacular and sometimes dismal effect. Value investing was the opposite of that.

In addition, academic studies were beginning to be published that showed that a portfolio of value stocks generally outperformed the market. Not all the time, of course - certainly not during manias like the Internet bubble - but most of the time. Although finance professors have subsequently engaged in a furious debate as to why this is so - a debate that largely consists of trying to square these findings with efficient market theory - Greenwald became convinced that they told an unambiguous truth: value investing worked. By 1994, he had revived the school's value investing course.

A decade-plus later, Greenwald has his own protégés, such as Sonkin - just as Graham once had Buffett as a protégé, and Murray had Gabelli. Among the many benefits for Greenwald is that he now gets to invest with some of the people he once taught - and as they become successful, they contribute money to the Graham and Dodd program.
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#308
Pooh

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По статье - финансовое отделение Колумбии действительно уникальное для студентов value инвестмента. Именно там Грэхем учил Баффетта уму-разуму. :-)

Действительно ли кроме Колумбии, value investing нигде больше нормально не преподают? Линч в "One Up On Wall Street" писал что он вроде Уортон заканчивал, и типа ничему нормальному его там не научили. Как там в других топ-финансовых факультетах? Кто в курсе?

---------
The Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing @ Columbia:
http://www1.gsb.colu...ting/index.html

courses:
http://www1.gsb.colu...curriculum.html

faculty:
http://www1.gsb.colu...ty/faculty.html
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#309
Pooh

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последняя ссылка на сегодня: http://www.forbes.co...gory.jhtml?id=5

список и сравнение брокерских онлайн-услуг. (втыкайте в брокера чтобы читать описание.)
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#310
[Narim]

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Portfolio theory no longer works.. Markoviz does not rule anymore... The Earth is flat.. yeah yeah.. Graham and Dodd are the men..!! Value investing is a way to yachts, penthouses, maybachs and golf!

имхо сила - в единстве. Кто мешает бацать портфель по принципам марковица с бетами, дивером и т.д., подбирая value & growth стоки по принципам Грэхема, Додда, Баффета & co?

MRK - вчера был turning point в истории компании. Утверждена новая программа развития до 2008 года, в рамках которой будет урезано 11% штата компании и закрыто 5 заводов. Послушал коференс-колл, CFO & Director General грустными голосами рассказали о делах в компании и о pride, excellence & passion, с которыми работают сотрудники в трудные для компании времена.. :D

yesterday's news:

http://www.forbes.co...1128video3.html

p.s. Pooh - мощный сет линков, thanks bro.

#311
[Narim]

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?Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to ?growth? and ?value? styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component?usually a plus, sometimes a minus?in the value equation.?

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report 2000
Warren Buffett (Columbia MS ?51)
CEO, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

#312
Pooh

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Portfolio theory no longer works.. Markoviz does not rule anymore... The Earth is flat.. yeah yeah.. Graham and Dodd are the men..!! Value investing is a way to yachts, penthouses, maybachs and golf!

имхо сила - в единстве. Кто мешает бацать портфель по принципам марковица с бетами, дивером и т.д., подбирая value & growth стоки по принципам Грэхема, Додда, Баффета & co?


"To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices." © Buffett, Letter to Shareholders, 1996.

:D

Не знаю, бету-шмету я никогда не мог принять. Если MRK упал резко из-за Вайокса, или еще чего, то у него бета будет некрасивая, но часто бывает что это самое время покупать.

Я тут классическую, первую статью Марковица раскопал, блин у меня голова заболела её читать. Мне Грэхема ИМХО проще понять, чисто интуитивно - it just makes sense. А всякие заумные формулы мне чето не нравятся.

?In 44 years of Wall Street experience and study, I have never seen dependable calculations made about common stock values, or related investment policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra. Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give speculation the deceptive guise of investment.? © Graham

Статья Марковица: http://cowles.econ.y.../p00b/p0060.pdf

Еще одна интересная статья на тему:
http://www.stern.nyu...ginofsafety.pdf

peace bro :D
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#313
Pooh

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с другого форума (для Авангарда):

-------------------------------------------

Bull Market - A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

Bear Market - A 6 to 18-month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry and the husband gets no sex.

Momentum Investing - The fine art of buying high and selling low.

Value Investing - The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E ratio - The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the Market keeps crashing.

Broker - What my broker has made me.

"Buy, Buy" - A flight attendant making market recommendations as you step off the plane.

Standard & Poor - Your life in a nutshell.

Stock Analyst - Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

Stock split - When your ex-wife and her lawyer split all your assets equally between themselves.

Market Correction - What happens the day after you buy stocks.

Cash Flow - The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

Yahoo - What someone yelled after selling it to you for $240 per share

Windows 2000 - What you jump out of when you're the sucker that bought Yahoo at $240 per share.

Institutional Investor - Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

----------------

:D
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#314
BritFan

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up!

Казахмыс войдет в расчет индекса FTSE 100 в декабре 05г
Вт дек 6, 2005 9:34 МСК
 
ЛОНДОН (Рейтер) - Акции казахстанской горнодобывающей компании Казахмыс и британской строительной компании Persimmon Plc войдут в расчет британского фондового индекса "голубых фишек" FTSE 100 позднее в декабре, свидетельствуют данные комитета индекса, обнародованные во вторник.

По итогам ежеквартального пересмотра индекса, букмекерская контора William Hill Plc и компания Whitbread Plc, скорее всего, выйдут из его расчета, говорят аналитики.

Решение комитета основано на рыночной капитализации компаний и стоимости их акций на момент окончания торгов вторника.

Официальное решение будет объявлено после закрытия торговых площадок в среду и вступит в силу сразу после окончания торгов 16 декабря.

Казахмыс является десятым по величине в мире производителем меди.

Казахмыс разместил 7 октября в рамках IPO на Лондонской фондовой бирже свои акции по 540 пенсов за штуку. Сейчас они котируются на уровне 683 пенса.

Компании, не входящие в расчет FTSE 100, но попадающие в число 90 крупнейших, автоматически попадают в индекс. Компании FTSE 100, капитализация которых упала до 111 места или ниже, переходят в индекс среднего эшелона FTSE 250.

Включение в FTSE 100 обычно повышает интерес инвесторов к компании и может способствовать небольшому росту спроса.


© Reuters 2005
All Rights Reserved


совсем недолго осталось. ;)
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#315
Pooh

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up!


БритФана в официального аппера темы! Я подаю в отставку. ;)

У меня перегруз хорошей инфы и ссылок, сам еще перевариваю. К тому же интереса к теме не наблюдается, кроме пары человек.

Сам щас обитаю на более оживленном форуме но также более узконаправленном: http://groups.msn.co...ion=get_threads

Напоследок пару ссыл скину, лекции Гринблата из Коламбии в формате Real Media: http://www3.gsb.colu...=YES&Term=20053

и лекции Мабуссина за 2000-01 год из Коламбии: http://www.capatcolu...g/securiti1.htm

Peace my brazzas :rolleyes:

Сообщение отредактировал Pooh: 07.12.2005, 23:04:38

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#316
kobie

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Братья аналитики, советчики, финанситы и т.п. дайте совет что купить чтоб встать на 1 -е место? ;) Т.е. естественно с расшифровкой анализа!!!
Устал быть то 5 то 4 из 66 в "СТОКЕ-II" :weep:


2 Narim: WHEN DO YOU PLAN TO CAME BACK? I crushed links btw Daur!

Сообщение отредактировал kobie: 09.12.2005, 09:38:32

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#317
Bass

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Меня иногда выручает интуиция, но сейчас дело не в ней, мне думается уже давно пора скупать любой движущийся TB в штатах, ожидаю снижения цен по тенговым цб и доходности корпоративных бондов в кз, что скажете?
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#318
daka

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EA присмотрелся к JMDT.
KOSN начинанет двигать тему лечения рака.
Но все же после 30 думаю от JMDT пора избавляться, ничего интересного в ближайшее время...

А вообще прикольно было бы ASM -3 портфельчик забабахать на 10 000 000, посмотрели бы как это, управлять институт портфелем... хе-хе.
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#319
daka

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Басс. Вопрос. Что значи снижение цен по тенговым бумагам. Думаю у нас деление по валютам в основном у бондов. Так вот как снижение цен бондов повличен снижение их доходности???
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#320
Bass

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я имел ввиду минфиновские бумажки, что если народ будет покупать валютные инструменты, и соответственно сливать ГКО, то по последним цена должна отыграть вниз и соответственно повысится их доходность и вся начисленная переоценка превратится в воздух.

т.е. в случае переворачивании позиций по портфелю, ну и обратная картина по корпоративным бумагам, они то в основном в валюте номинированы

Сообщение отредактировал Bass: 09.12.2005, 12:43:17

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